Sunday, March 26, 2006

The Election

Welcome to the regular Israeli readers this blog has picked up! Thank you for your hospitality while I am in your country.

Israel is in the midst of an election campaign. Tuesday the 28th is Election Day.

There are 31 parties vying for the 120 seats in the Knesset, the national legislature. The three primary parties are the right wing Likud, the left wing Labour and the centrist Kadima. Someone described Israeli politics as one of the purest forms of democracy. In deed, this may be so, but as with so many things, the purist form is seldom the cleanest or the most efficient!

If you have gotten used to Canadian political mach- inations – she was Conservative now she’s Liberal, he was with the Liberals yesterday but today he is with the Conservatives, he was an NDP premier now he’s leader of . . . – you’ll have no problem here. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, incapacitated in January by a devastating stroke, was elected in 2003 as leader of the right wing Likud Party. It is a hard-edged, take-no-prisoners Mike-Harris kind of party. Sharon became frustrated with party members when many would not support his plan to withdraw from Gaza so he formed what is now the centrist, and leading, Kadima Party. Acting as Prime Minister, and leading Kadima in this election, is Ehud Olmert. He is not known for his charisma so the political strategy seems to be to keep him seen to be governing rather than out knocking on doors. It is a strategy that would appear to be working. Kadima is well ahead of Likud and Labour in the polls and expected to take a third of the seats.

Leading Likud, Sharon’s former party, is its former leader and a former Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. He’s been unable to establish any traction and his party is running a distant third in the polls.

The Labour Party formed the government for the first 29 years of Israel’s modern life. Arguing for a bilateral peace settlement with the Palestinians and withdrawal from West Bank territories, it has been a large political force but has not been able to garner enough political support to accomplish its policies.

In many respects Sharon pulled a classic Canadian Liberal move when he pulled Labour’s defining plank out from under it to form Kadima. In this election Olmert has pledged to unilaterally withdraw from large sections of the West Bank (Palestinian territories taken by Israel in 1967), maintain specific settlements and land, and complete the massive concrete security fence to define a permanent border.

While in Canada the norm is for one party to hold a majority of seats in the House of Commons, here the norm is coalition government. I mentioned earlier that Kadima is predicted to take a third of the seats. In order to govern it will have to curry support from a coalition of the other 30 parties in the Knesset. Oddly, a portion of this support will actually come from far right wing parties who will exchange hard-edged policies for a seat at the cabinet table.

Because civic life here is entirely conducted in Hebrew, it is not easy for me to get a sense of this campaign. Local news and radio shows, posters and banners are all in Hebrew. The English language papers do not offer a full-flavoured commentary on the issues. An Op-Ed piece in this weekend's Jerusalem Post does offer some interesting analyses of a wider emerging trend in Israeli politics ( "An Israel Transformed"). and our Globe and Mail posted online Sunday an insightful article on the campaign (“Israel braces for crucial vote”). In conversation with Jewish Israelis, however, I hear an enormous apathy. There is a deep fatigue at the on-going violence and threat of violence and a certain resignation that no party has the political will or capital to change it. Predictions are that this election will have an historic low voter turn out. Arab Israelis and Palestinians I talk to despair that Israel will ever concede any of their economic, military, or territorial dominance and that the cycle of violence and discrimination will only continue.

The introduction of the new Palestinian government of Hamas makes for an interesting side story but it does not seem to have had much impact upon this election. While most Jewish Israelis I talk to understandably rail against this party which refuses to acknowledge that Israel has a place in the Mideast, they have also had to say that it was democratically elected and the development of democratic institutions in the Palestinian territories is, ultimately, the route to peace in the Mideast.

As a visitor, the most visible sign of this election is the heightened security presence. While residents and security forces are always vigilant, they are especially so now. Two major bombings were thwarted last week. Going into a popular club Thursday evening I was subjected not just to the regular look in my bag and wave of the metal detecting wand, but a thorough search, pat down, and request for ID. Land borders have been closed or severely restricted, resulting in my decision to cancel a planned trip to Egypt. There is a sense that collectively everyone is holding their breath, hoping and praying that March 28th comes and goes without violence.

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